In this newsletter, we are going to take a fast have a look at a number of the critical figures and data within the energy markets. We will then have a look at a number of the key market movers early in the week before providing you with the most recent analysis of the highest news events going down the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you may enjoy.
Oil prices bounced back on Tuesday thanks to news that Russian oil supplies to central Europe via Ukraine had been halted. Meanwhile, it seems that the Iranian nuclear talks will soon creep into the energy market agenda. The negotiations broke off for a period of national consultations when diplomats returned to their countries to debate the EU-brokered draft. Now, there's speculation that Iran may conform to this final draft. If that happens, expect oil prices to fall back toward $80 per barrel.
Iranian Deal Moves into Limelight. The swiftly organized indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington have reportedly made good progress, per diplomats participating within the talks, after the EU presented a final text on the revival of the JCPOA.
- Ever-increasing energy costs are weighing on European consumers, with EU inflation nearing double-digit territory and also the UK expecting a spike towards 13%, mostly driven by soaring gas prices.
- the majority European countries are seeing increases in food prices within the double digits as spot TTF prices continue hovering around €200/MWh, defying recent declines within the UN world food cost index (down 9% month-on-month in July).
- IMF forecasts, the prices of living for the poorest of UK households have gone up by quite 16% this year, whilst in Hungary (the least suffering of the EU pack) they rose by 3%.
- the EU approved a commercial hoc aid package for European companies within the agriculture sector, although the €110 million that went into the package can be insufficient too late.
Market Movers
- US investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reiterated its bullish view, saying that market tightness will remain throughout 2023 and maintaining its 2023 average price forecast of $125 per barrel.
- UK-based oil major BP (NYSE:BP) has reportedly started drilling a carbon capture appraisal well in Texas, seeking to bury CO2 from Linde’s hydrogen plant outside of Houston.
- Nigeria’s President has approved the acquisition of ExxonMobil’s (NYSE:XOM) offshore shallow water assets by Nigerian oil firm Seplat Energy (LON:SEPL) for $1.28 billion.
Russia Accuses Ukraine of Halting Pipeline Oil Flows to Europe. consistent with Russian transportation firm Transneft, Ukraine has halted Russian line flows to Central Europe, reportedly because sanctions prevented it from accepting transit fees, jeopardizing crude supply to countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and also the European country.
EU Publishes Gas Curtailment Laws. the EU officially published legislation for cutting the group’s gas consumption by 15%, getting into force on the 9th of August despite Polish and Hungarian vetoes.
Colombian President Starts Reign with Oil Levy. Colombia’s new president Gustavo Petro has proposed a tax reform bill that might levy a tenth tax on exports of oil when it exceeds the brink of $48/barrel, likewise for coal if the benchmark prices move above $87/ton.
Japan Wants to remain in Sakhalin Projects. With Russia temporarily banning Western oil companies from selling their shares in key energy projects, Tokyo has reiterated its willingness to stay the stakes of Japanese consortiums in both Sakhalin-1 and a couple of.
Norway Doesn’t Want to Share its Hydro. With most of northern Europe stricken by counter-seasonally low tide levels, the govt of Norway could limit exports of electricity to preserve power reception because it relies on hydro reservoirs for 90% of its domestic needs.
Beijing to confine on Teapots Again, Chinese authorities are preparing to launch widespread tax investigations of independent refiners in Shandong, presumably checking for evasion and irregularities with quota trading.
PEMEX Eyes Takeover of Mexican Offshore Gem. Mexican state company PEMEX is getting ever closer to finalizing the sphere development plan for the 700 million-barrel Zama field, discovered in 2017 by Houston-based Talos Energy (NYSE:TALO) but given away to PEMEX by the AMLO administration in 2021.
Cenovus Keeps on Buying up BP Stakes - two months after it bought BP’s (NYSE:BP) 50% interest in Canada’s Sunrise oil sands, Canadian oil firm Cenovus Energy (CVE) agreed to shop for the remaining 50% stake of the UK-based major within the 160,000 b/d Toledo Refinery for $300 million.
Kazakhstan Wants to Ban Coal Exports. Kazakhstan, the world’s tenth-largest exporter, will most likely ban coal exports via road for the subsequent six months because the country seeks to stay domestic production reception and accommodate increasing domestic needs of electricity.
US Fuel Retailers rise Against SAF step-down. US fuel retailers have voiced their discontent at the inclusion of a diminution for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in Democrats’ $430 billion spending bill, offering $1.25-1.75/USG credit betting on the feedstock, arguing SAF is more carbon-intense and fewer efficient than renewable diesel.
Indonesia Signs up for Tesla Nickel Supply. US carmaker Tesla is rumoured to possess signed a $5 billion handle Indonesia that might secure materials for EV batteries from nickel processing companies in Indonesia, a year after CEO Elon Musk visited the island nation to barter the deal.