A2A. Before we address this question, let’s do a fact check - how many of us remember the name of the Maharashtra CM before Devendra Fadnavis?
Most Maharashtra CM couldn’t complete their 5 years term. In fact, Fadnavis is the only 2nd CM to complete 5 years term as Maharashtra CM after a long gap of almost 40 years. Before that only Vasantrao Naik could complete his term. He was CM for 11 years 78 days from 1963 to 1975. Maharashtra politics has always been topsy turvy. So let’s first see whether Mr. Shinde can complete the rest of the term as CM. Popular or non-popular would be a different story.
So the first battle he has to face is to complete the balance terms, which most biggies other than Fadnavis have failed in the last 47 years. That is the reason Fadnavis is special. The battle for being popular has to be fought through holding his chair for the next two and half years roughly. This is not going to be easy looking at the way he has become CM. Secondly being a popular CM is an extremely difficult task in a state like Maharashtra, that too in a short period. Most importantly the dilemma would be there whether BJP would like him to be seen as a popular CM? He being a popular CM is not good for BJP, and he being a bad CM is also not good for BJP. So the internal tug of war would always be there.
Shinde doesn’t have the number in his hand, he is entirely dependent on BJP. Even if he shows extraordinary calibre to run the government, BJP can not allow him to complete his term as a successful administrator. Which will become a big risk for BJP. That’s why in another answer I have predicted that there will be another revolt to pull down Shinde's government. In my estimation, this government could survive maximum up to the 2024 general election. I do not see any reason why should BJP pull it beyond that. The next two years Shinde will be kept extremely busy and occupied so that he doesn’t get enough time to build or extend his base. Neither he will have any extra pull of money to build up his empire. BJP itself would never want Shinde to become more powerful. Plus UT, NCP, and Congress nobody would want him to be successful.
His battle has just started. He is going to face the actual war now..
Devendra Fadnavis had no say in claiming or not claiming the post of CM of Maharashtra. It’s the Modi and Shah who decided that Eknath Shinde would be CM and Devendra Fadnavis would be deputy CM. As a loyal party leader, Devendra Fadnavis accepted the decision and became the deputy CM. No one knows that how much damage Eknath Shinde can do to Uddhav Thackeray. This is the first time that a big rebellion of this scale has happened in Shiv Sena. In past the big leaders who had left Shiv Sena has survived politically but their supports have suffered. The upcoming BMC and Thane Municipal election would give some hint about the state of Shiv Sena.
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