I am a Kattar & Pure Mumbaikar Maharashtrian and I find myself eligible to answer this question on my political observations around based on current scenario. For making you understand the future of these parties let me take you through an analysis of the election wise performance of all parties who contested right from 2009 to 2019 - which will give a clear pathway to contest myself as on of the candidate from my place of born and grow up at South Mumbai known as MUMBADEVI constituency.
2009 Maharashtra Assembly Elections INC−82 NCP−62 BJP−46 SHIVSENA−45 MNS−13
2014 Maharashtra Assembly Elections BJP−122
SHIVSENA−63 INC−42 NCP−41 MNS−1
2019 Maharashtra Assembly Elections BJP−105
SHIVSENA−56
NCP−54
INC−44
MNS−1
Let us understand some things here now
In 2009 and 2014 BJP and shivsena were in alliance , after loss in 2009 elections they won by majority in 2014
In 2006 Raj Thackrey split from Shivsena and formed his own party - MNS which won 13 seats in 2009 thus taking away the Marathi votes from Shivsena
Now in 2019 what happened is something very interesting, Shivsena and BJP fought elections together , and got majority of 161 seats , but because of internal differences in between, Shivsena broke the alliance with BJP and merged with INC and NCP thus forming a 3 party alliance called as Maha Vikas Aghadi ( MVA ). So , MVA government had more majority seats as compared to BJP that's why they won and Uddhav Thackrey went on to become the Chief Minister of Maharashtra for the first time
Now if we analyze each party independently then we many notice few changes
In 2019
BJP lost 17 seats as compared to 2014
Shivsena lost 7 seats as compared to 2014
NCP won 13 more seats as compared to 2014
INC won 2 more seats as compared to 2014
PREDICTIONS for next election :-
No party is going to get complete majority, everyone is going to have double digit seats
NCP to win a few more seats
Shivsena to lose a lot many seats
BJP will lie somewhere between 85 to 90 or even less
Considering the war of words happening between MVA and NDA Government, it is very difficult to predict whether Shiv-Sena and BJP would join again or not or whether this 3 party MVA government is going to win again
Currently MVA government is enjoying a lot much power in Maharashtra , but if you talk independently then YES , BJP has most number of MLA's as compared to any other party , but as I said earlier, even BJP isn't capable of winning by majority now, reasons to justify are many- Inflation, many others..
So if BJP has to win then there is no other option to them apart from Shiv-Sena because they tend to share the same ideologies
Pro Hindu Parties
Developmental oriented parties
Having a friendship of over 25 years, so of course people are more connected with them as compared to any other party
There are many speculations of alliance of BJP and Raj Thackrey's MNS, but I feel both must stay away from each other 2 years ago Raj was someone who was speaking a lot negative against the BJP and now suddenly they both are opting for alliance..
Isn't it strange??
Either of these would happen now
Shivsena and BJP again unite before the elections and tend to win by majority
OR
Shivsena , INC and NCP continue their MVA government
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