Why Oil Prices Are Finally Falling - Mobility levels in California have seen only meager growth in recent weeks despite a seasonal uptick going down across the country, indicating that a chronic period of high fuel prices would temper seasonality patterns. - Gasoline retail prices have averaged $5.70 per gallon over the newest reporting week in California, some $1.50 per barrel above the national average, with current daily prices already at $5.92 per gallon. - Against this background, weekend mobility data in California has decoupled itself from the nationwide pattern of growth, lingering at levels seen in early 2022. - Oil demand loss coming from elevated fuel prices within the US might amount to a whopping 300,000 b/d and would be translated primarily into declines in discretionary (primarily weekend) driving. Market Movers - The French government is reportedly in talks with the country’s energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) to create a floating LNG terminal within the northern port of metropolis, set to become the fifth LNG plant within the country. - A wildcat drilled by a global consortium led by ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) in Brazil’s offshore waters clad to be dry, marking the primary wildcat within the Sergipe-Alagoas Basin, assumed to be one among the foremost promising frontiers in Brazil. - New research from Australia’s GCI claims that BP’s (NYSE:BP) 2030 net-zero plans won't deliver a discount within the company’s absolute emissions as refined and physically traded products and fossil oil are exempted. If these claims are true BP will likely face further backlash from environmentalists. An apparent breakthrough in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has provided oil markets with some much-needed bearish news. Just after European countries had walked back threats of sanctioning Russian oil, Russia promised to scale down military operations within the north of Ukraine. The promise from Russia has sparked hope that the war in Ukraine may finally begin to deescalate. Meanwhile, China’s zero-COVID strategy has led to more lockdowns, lockdowns that are likely to cut back demand for the Asian giant. WTI is threatening to fall back below $100 on the news, although oil markets still remain tight. OPEC Warns Against the Politicization of Supply. in an exceedingly thinly veiled riposte to the IEA, OPEC heavyweights Asian country and UAE warned against politicizing oil supply issues, arguing that squeezing any member out of the alliance would only increase prices and hit customers even harder. Chinese Independents Hit by Double Whammy. Already under stress from increasing government interference, China’s COVID lockdowns, including but not limited to the closure of Shanghai, are forcing teapot refiners to unload their April-delivery cargoes, with selling limited to state-owned refiners because of destination restrictions. Rouble Gas Payment Battle Looms on the Horizon. G7 nations have rejected demands from Russia’s President national leader that ‘unfriendly’ countries buy Russian gas with roubles, setting the stage for a seemingly prolonged battle as Putin has given an end-March deadline to his government on changing the pricing terms. Chevron Cuts Kazakh Production on Port Issues. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) reduced production rates at the biggest oil field in Kazakhstan, Tengiz, after just one out of three single point moorings of the CPC terminal remains operable, the opposite two will provisionally take 3-4 weeks to repair. US to Slap Tariffs on Southeast Asian Solar Imports. US trade officials said they'll launch an investigation into solar imports from Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia as Chinese producers have shifted production to those countries to avoid paying US duties. Iran Strike a serious warning call to Kurdish Gas Plans. in step with media reports, Iran attacked Iraq’s Kurdistan region earlier this month so as to warn Kurdish officials that started talks with Israeli and US energy officials to ship Kurdish gas to Turkey via a replacement gas pipeline. Bolsonaro Replaces Petrobras CEO. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro decided to fireside Joaquim Silva e Luna, CEO of state-controlled company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR), on the rear of surging transportation fuel prices within the country, tapping market-oriented academic Adriano Pires for the role. India Wants Russian Coking Coal. With India becoming far and away the biggest buyer of spot Russian crude cargoes, Delhi now wants to double down on imports of coking coal from Russia in a very departure from pre-2022 developments. Indian steel producers had previously relied overwhelmingly on Australian supplies. Spain and Portugal Receive Waiver to Cap Prices. the ecu Commission cleared Spain and Portugal to cap their power prices in a very departure from classic non-interventionist EU policy, limiting the wholesale price at €180 per MWh, apparently thanks to the 2 countries’ high share of renewables in power generation. Colombia Greenlights Fracking Pilot. The Colombian government approved the environmental permit for the Kale fracking trial within the Middle Magdalena Basin, led by Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC), amidst increasing pressure from environmental groups as they require the country’s court to ban the practice. Orsted Sells 50% Stake in World’s Biggest Offshore power station. Danish renewables company Orsted (CPH:ORSTED) agreed to sell 1/2 the 1.3 GW Hornsea 2 offshore wind project within the uk to a French consortium comprising insurer AXA and banking giant Credit Agricole (25% each). Ukraine Peace Promise Pushes Aluminium Back. The apparent progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks took the steam out of aluminum’s month-long spike, dropping quite 5% on Tuesday alone with LME three-month prices dropping to $3,400 per MT Gasoil Storage Has Never Been This Cheap. during a desperate try to incentivize oil companies to increase gasoil stocks, storage companies within the ARA region dropped storage fees to a historical low of €1.5-2.0 per kilolitre, yet even with this Europe remains counter seasonally tight and undersupplied.
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