In this pandemic crisis, the pace of recovery within the Indian economy is slowing, high-frequency indicators suggest. Some are in RED the number has to be corrected by the end of this pandemic year there are some has to be suggested: Analysis by MMS
After a historic contraction within the July-ended quarter, when India’s gross domestic product (GDP) declined 24% compared to the year-ago period, economists expect India’s economic contraction to be narrower within the Sep-ended quarter. The official figures are due for release later on. However, high-frequency indicators tracked by Mumbai Multimedia Studio suggest that the economic recovery may well be losing steam. 6 of 16 high-frequency economic indicators considered in green, or above their five-year-average trend, as of October. Eight were within the red, or below the five-year-average trend, while two were in line with it, this is often a small deterioration from September. This was also the worst tally on the scoreboard since July.
Only one indicator of the buyer economy segment, railroad car sales growth, was in green as of October. coach sales or wholesale dispatches during the month were 11% more than last year. the expansion moderated from the month ago (24%) but remained over the long-term average. Retail registration data however suggests that motor car registrations fell 3% compared to the year-ago period in October, consistent with the Vahan dashboard.
The other indicators remain a disappointment. the expansion in tractor sales dropped from above-trend levels to about 8%, A level according to the trend. this can be a minutely slowdown from the high integer growth in tractor sales within the June-September period. the quantity of domestic air passengers flown in October were 57% not up to the identical period last year. The contraction was more moderate compared to last month, possibly on account of festive travelling, but still sharply below the trend growth. Broadband subscriber data is out there with some months’ lag. the newest data, as of August, shows that the expansion in subscriber base (16%) remains much below normal.Plain Facts Primer Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker Market Dashboard Pivot
Only one indicator of the patron economy segment, railcar sales growth, was in green as of October. railway car sales or wholesale dispatches during the month were 11% above last year. the expansion moderated from the month ago (24%) but remained more than the long-term average. Retail registration data however suggests that motor car registrations fell 3% compared to the year-ago period in October, in step with the Vahan dashboard.
The other indicators remain a disappointment. the expansion in tractor sales dropped from above-trend levels to about 8%, A level in step with the trend. this can be a acute slowdown from the high whole number growth in tractor sales within the June-September period. the amount of domestic air passengers flown in October were 57% less thanthe identical period last year. The contraction was more moderate compared to last month, possibly on account of festive travelling, but still sharply below the trend growth. Broadband subscriber data is on the market with some months’ lag. the newest data, as of August, shows that the expansion in subscriber base (16%) remains much below normal.
Signals from the producer economy segment are mixed. The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a record 58.0. The momentum in rail freight traffic continued, with a 15% growth in October. But the 2 other indicators, available with a month’s lag--core infrastructure growth and non-food credit growth--remained within the red. The core infrastructure index was 1% below last year’s level. The contraction within the core sector has narrowed within the last seven months but its performance remains well below the historical average. Non-food credit growth (5.8%) was the slowest since August 2017. Fortnightly data from the banking company of India doesn't suggest any marked improvement in early November. Some other high-frequency indicators such as Goods and Service Tax (GST) collections and diesel consumption,improved in October. Mobility also continued to improve during October.
But November also saw a downturn in merchandise exports, which slipped below the year ago level, having briefly recovered in September. In major labour-intensive sectors such as gems and jewellery, and leather products, exports remained subdued. Overall, labour-intensive exports were 12% lower year-on-year, worse than the five-year average trend. This suggests that the stress in the job market continues.
The ease of living segment still looks bleak, especially due to unrelenting inflationary pressures. Inflation remains elevated and core inflation is sticky at 5.5%. The fall in exports along with the surge in inflation pulled India down in the emerging market (EM) ranks in November.
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