West Bengal under radar - due to election fever and the prediction - will the national level party take over the regional party like the Aliens came to start business under the banner of East India Company and later slowly spread from that land to all over the country. We at Mumbai Multimedia Studio predicts analyse and monitor the current scenario and writes....
Bengal is politically divided into three different factions. With the exception of some very small parties here and there, the electoral fight would be between Trinamool Congress, the BJP and the Congress- Left front alliance. Here, too, the Left-Cong alliance doesn't stand a chance, relegating them to being vote-cutters. Before going any further, let's understand the religious demographics of Bengal. The state is 72% Hindu and 27% Muslim with the 1% being Christian and Buddhist, mostly in the north. Here again, there's a traditional regional divide as not all groups think the same way.
West Bengal is divided into five administrative divisions. Jalpaiguri, Medinipur, Malda, Bardhaman and Presidency. Among them, Jalpaiguri has always been a sort of BJP stronghold, particularly in and around Darjeeling city. The BJP has won Darjeeling Lok Sabha constituency even when they were not a strong political force in the state. In recent times, Jalpaiguri, the Duars and Koch Bihar have also turned towards the BJP. This division has traditionally voted against the ruling party and I expect the BJP to sweep.
The Medinipur division is another that I expect would go to the BJP. This area has a significant tribal population. The Tribal belt of Central India has always been a traditional BJP bastion and it seems to have extended into Bengal too. Starting in 2014, the BJP made inroads into this region, seemingly eating into the Left's vote base and as we have observed, the BJP's ascendancy is followed by Left's decline. The addition of Suvendhu Adhikari, more or less, should seal it for the BJP, not only in Medinipur but also in neighbouring Bardhaman division. The 2019 Lok sabha election results in West Bengal were an indicator in this direction.
The election then comes down to Malda and Presidency divisions. Malda is a Muslim majority region with a large Hindu minority (55%-45%). This region is populated by the Matua community who have been victims of partition and have had a continuous stream of migration into India from Bangladesh even to this day. Here's where the CAA would have a hugely positive impact for the BJP. The Hindus here overwhelmingly back the CAA and, as such, it is surprising why the Central government has still not brought the law into full effect. Also the Congress is very strong in here and could potentially damage Trinamool's chances. This would leave us with the Presidency division or more specifically Kolkata city and its surrounding districts. This is also where the popular “Bhadralok" community exists. Anyone who is a keen observer of Bengal politics knows what I'm talking about. They were once staunch supporters of the CPM. Infact, most of Bengal CPM leadership comes from this community. Today, many of them have shifted to the TMC. However, this community has also produced Tagore, Swami Vivekananda and Shyama Prasad Mukherjee and the BJP has made some inroads but I still expect the Trinamool to win most of the seats here. The Bhadralok in Tripura have shifted to the BJP but the Bhadralok in Bengal may still take some time.
Overall, I believe this to be the three likely scenarios.
Current Scenario 1 : TMC - 180+, BJP - 90-100, Cong- Left - 15-20.
In a very unlikely scenario, the TMC retains power, the BJP falls well short and has to sit in the opposition. For this to come true, the Congress and Left should completely evaporate. This is something similar to what happened during the Lok Sabha elections when the fight became a bipolar TMC-BJP one. As said earlier, this is highly unlikely as there's no pro-incumbency in favour of Mamata Banerjee and the Left and Congress are fighting the elections together that could hurt TMC in Central Bengal.
Scenario 2 : TMC - 130-140, BJP - 130-145, Left-Cong - 10-25.
This was my prediction a couple of months ago. I felt that a hung was the most likely outcome of the elections with the TMC entering a post-poll alliance with the Left and Congress, similar to the JD(S)-Congress alliance in Karnataka. However, many here suggested that Bengal politics would never allow a hung verdict but this is more likely than the previous scenario.
Scenario 3 : BJP-180+, TMC-70-80, Left+Cong - 30-35.
The most plausible outcome of the elections. Anti-incumbency against the TMC is very high and minority appeasement has touched its peak. Backed with illegal immigration, lack of industrialization could really make it tough for the TMC.
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